Pancake City

Obama’s stock on Intrade has risen to 72, the highest of the year. Intrade is HORRIBLE at predicting the future, but an excellent aggregate of conventional wisdom. Even as an pessimistic, glass half-empty guy, I have trouble seeing how Obama loses at this point.

If I had an account on Intrade, I would actually buy stock in McCain today. In most elections, the race tightens up during the last several days. This is likely Obama’s high mark, and while I expect he will still win handily, McCain’s stock is bound to rise in the next few weeks. I mean, it can’t get any worse at this point. I think someone could make a bit of money betting on McCain now and selling in a few weeks, before the election.

No, really.

First off: I TAKE ABSOLUTELY NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANYTHING THAT HAPPENS IF YOU DECIDE TO DO THIS.

There might be a catch I’m missing. The company may go bankrupt in a week and take everyone’s money. There is no such thing as a free lunch. Etc, etc, etc.

I did transfer about $1,600 to two sportsbetting sites though. I do a lot of dumb things though, so that should be more of a deterrant.

Here are the details.

Essentially, Mansion, a sportsbook site, is offering to match a $1,000 bet for anyone who places a bet on the Steelers in the Steelers/Dolphins Week 1 NFL game. You bet $1,100 ($1,000 bet + $100 fee). The Steelers win by more than the spread (5 points), you get $1,000. If they lose or win by the spread or less, they refund you the $1,100.

The way you guarantee winning something is by placing a bet on the Dolphins on another sportsbook site for about half that amount. So whatever happens, you win some money.

I was very hesitant to post this because while it looks legit, you can never tell with these things, and I would feel horrible if someone lost a lot of money because of this (it would take a while for me to feel horrible for you though because I would be feeling very horrible myself). But we’re all adults and capable of making our own decisions and taking responsibility for them.

I bet $10 on the coin flip. I have a really good feeling about tails this year.

(No, I am not joking.)

Update:

Yes! YES! Who’s your daddy now, heads? Tails owns yo’ ass. Don’t be showing your face in my hood. I don’t play like that. Papa’s eating out tonight! At Papa John’s. I have a coupon.

(And for anyone who thinks I have a gambling problem, it was a free bet as a promotion for a sports betting site.)

I spent several minutes searching the Internet today for easy ways to make money, and found nothing. Would a more exhaustive search turn up something? Perhaps. But I’m not looking for a “Get Rich By Spending Hours Hunting for Information Buried on the Web” scheme. I want by riches quick, the way I deserve my riches.

In fact, as far as I can tell, the only way to get rich quick is through online gambling. So that’s where I’ll start for the first few weeks.

I like online gambling because it’s fun, easy, and requires little knowledge. All you need is luck, and as a professional dog walker living with two roommates and scraping to get by every month, I have plenty of it.

I started off my professional gambling career with a few small bets on the first World Series game and a bet on the Chicago-Tampa Bay football game tomorrow.

I bet $10 that the Red Sox would score the first three runs (they did) and $2 on an 8:1 bet that they would win by exactly 4 runs (they didn’t). I also bet $10 that Chicago and Tampa would score less than 32 points combined. My reasoning is that both of these teams played the Redskins and are now shitty by association.

My goal is to win $100-$200 a month betting on sports I barely watch and know little about. Again, my aim is not merely just to make money. It is to make money with the absolute minimum of effort, skill, and knowledge. When I do something, I do it right. And by right, I mean doing everything wrong.

Does anyone know a web site that is taking win/lose bets on the election? Essentially, I’m looking for a bookie. Most of the web sites I’ve seen sell futures, which I have next to no understanding of and thus don’t want to get involved with. I’m ready to put $500 on Kerry, and I’d put more if I knew Osama wasn’t stuck in a freezer in the White House kitchen.

Since I so publicly called Isabel–what was it, oh yes–a pussy, and bet my Mom five dollars its effect would be no worse than a severe thunderstorm for D.C., I’m due to say that I was absolutely, completely wrong. Many people are still without power, and Fairfax County water was only recently declared safe for drinking. Mom, you win five dollars, and I’m glad my trash-talking mouth didn’t add a ‘ty’ to the amount when we made the bet.

Having said that, you know the idea that you “create your own reality”? I am now a believer. Contrary to houses in surrounding areas, my townhouse never lost power, our water remained untainted, our virgins unspoiled, and few branches fell in thine neighborhood. And perhaps all because I denied the power of this tropical storm in the face of all reasons. In other words, it was worth the $5. And now I know what it feels like to be a creationist.