VP Debate — Not Very Live Blogging
I’ll be watching the VP debate tomorrow and probably write something about it, but not in real-time. If I had 1,000 regular readers, I’d blog it in real-time. I don’t though. I have 10. I’ll be typing my thoughts after I sober up.
Pre-debate thoughts: the problem with your opponent being turned into a caricature is that, however justified the caricature is, it’s still a caricature. All most people have seen of Palin are the worst clips from her interview with Katie Couric and the SNL skits that poke fun at her lack of knowledge and her reflex to BS her way through an answer rather than say “I don’t know.” (You can credit the Obama campaign repeated hammering of McCain’s “I don’t know much about the economy” comment for banishing the phrase “I don’t know” from the McCain campaign).
The poor opinion of Palin is justified, but she’s not as bad as her caricature. People tuning into the debate expecting her to flub answer after answer will be disappointed. Furthermore, a lot of her verbal fumbling has come in response to follow-up questions, something the debate format doesn’t focus on. One can predict most of the questions that will be asked at a debate and rehearse sensible two-minute responses to these questions. That’s 75% of the debate there. Barring a total panic attack or a surprise question, her baseline will be a C performance, and that in itself would staunch the bleeding.
She may well do better than a C. Either way, the deck seems set for her to do “good enough” and pop the bubble of criticism that has grown over the past few weeks. Not that she will then give her first press conference or do another interview with a real journalist, but mix in some media appearances with Republican-friendly outlets and the Sarah Palin facade will strengthen itself and carry on, provided she makes no more major gaffes.
I’d love to be wrong. But I feel that the most likely result of the VP debate isn’t a flame out or triumphant comeback, but a fairly bland, anti-climatic moment.
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Another thought: There is the possibility that the growing perception of Palin as unqualified and out of her league has already hardened in the minds of most people, similar to how the perception of Joe Biden as someone who talks a lot and makes gaffes is set in stone, regardless of the truth.
If that is the case for Palin, then she needs to hit it the debate out of the park or she is screwed. Once people start looking at you one way, it takes a long time for them to take a second look. I am convinced Joe Biden could take a vow of silence for a year and people would still see him as a talkative gaffe-machine.
Jojo McGurf said,
October 2, 2008 @ 1:53 am
Mccain/Palin 09!
http://www.inwhatrespectcharlie.net
Kori said,
October 2, 2008 @ 3:49 pm
But what the fuck? This is possibly the future president, and the bset we can expect from her is “good enough?” Bullshit. Ugh. See, there I go again. Back in the corner for me.
[F]oxymoron said,
October 2, 2008 @ 5:50 pm
Kori echoes my sentiments… this woman may be a heartbeat away from one of the most envious leadership positions in the world. I don’t want another fumbling fool representing this nation. What happens when a “follow-up question” pops up at a high level meeting between heads of states? Mother- Moose Hunter - Maverick - Mediocre
charlie said,
October 2, 2008 @ 6:02 pm
Hey, you can add one more regular reader. I love your blog.
Jason said,
October 2, 2008 @ 6:23 pm
I’m not trying to justify the lowered standards for her. I’m just acknowledging that they exist. I would love it if no American would ever vote for a public representative who refused to hold a press conference or do more than a few extended interviews with non-partisan journalists.
I would love it if, after Bill Clinton held weekly press conferences for most (all?) of his administration, the public arose in a frothy uproar against Bush for denying access to the press and holding press conferences months apart.
The reality is different. Partisanship overrules rationality, and likability trumps qualifications. Ever after what may be the worst presidency in U.S. history, after the clearest example one could ask for of the peril in devaluing intelligence and thoughtfulness when choosing a leader, you still have 35% of Americans for whom Sarah Palin can do no evil. And that’s her floor. That could get back up to 40% or 45% with one good debate performance.
I’m not saying it’s right. I’m just saying that’s how it was, how it is, and how it will be. In 8 years from now, after Obama helps cleans up this mess, we’ll probably go right back to electing George P. Bush, or Jeb Bush, or one of the Bush twins. We’ll elect a Clinton or Obama if the country is in the shitter, but once things turn around, we’ll be looking for another under-qualified person to do the shitting.