Obama’s Intrade #: 72
Obama’s stock on Intrade has risen to 72, the highest of the year. Intrade is HORRIBLE at predicting the future, but an excellent aggregate of conventional wisdom. Even as an pessimistic, glass half-empty guy, I have trouble seeing how Obama loses at this point.
If I had an account on Intrade, I would actually buy stock in McCain today. In most elections, the race tightens up during the last several days. This is likely Obama’s high mark, and while I expect he will still win handily, McCain’s stock is bound to rise in the next few weeks. I mean, it can’t get any worse at this point. I think someone could make a bit of money betting on McCain now and selling in a few weeks, before the election.
Nigel Eccles said,
October 8, 2008 @ 4:21 am
I wouldn’t be so sure about McCain bouncing back. It obviously could happen but McCain’s campaign seems to have descended into a series of publicity stunts each more desperate than the last. The problem is that voting has already started and McCain is losing in the swing states.
His stock has dropped even further with him currently trading at about 20% with most exchanges. Here is our market (with links to the other markets): http://www.hubdub.com/m17795/Who_will_win_the_2008_US_Presidential_Election
Kori said,
October 8, 2008 @ 2:55 pm
I just read today that it would take a National Security Crisis to get McDick elected-but wait-we already have one of those, too…..
charlie said,
October 8, 2008 @ 8:38 pm
Sure, you would make money…but at the PRICE OF YOUR IMMORTAL SOUL!!!!
Jason said,
October 10, 2008 @ 1:17 am
Sorry Nigel, just realized your comment got flagged and needed to be approved.
Hey, if McCain doesn’t bounce back, that would be awesome. Most elections narrow in the last few weeks though (wish I could find the link where I read this). This one could be different, but I think it’s more likely for McCain to narrow the gap than stay so far apart. Not that I’m actually betting money though.