Pancake City

Chris Rock has some funny lines in this interview he did with Larry King. He just came out with an HBO special that I am looking forward to seeing.

Chris Rock interview with Larry King

I’m out of tune more often than not with conventional wisdom, so I don’t have a strong opinion on who did better. Several months ago, the expectations were that McCain would best Obama in a foreign policy debate and it would be a victory if Obama could hold his own. After McCain’s behavior the last week, I think the new expectations were that it would be a victory for McCain if he showed up on stage wearing pants.

I wasn’t sure if McCain would fly in on stage in a hot air balloon, if he would rappel down from the rafters, or ride in piggyback on Joe Lieberman yeling “Yippie!” When he walked on stage like a normal candidate, I think that was a major campaign surprise. A real game changer.

I like the new format of the debates a lot, and I’d be happy to have Jim Lehrer host all of them. He does a great job. One quibble with a question he asked, the one about what programs or priorities would be put on hold because of the cost of the bailout. It’s one of those questions where the evasive, politician-speak answer is the right one.

The number $700 billion wasn’t arrived at based on certain conditions in the market. It was because they needed a big, dramatic number. That’s not a joke. I don’t have the quote from the Treasury official who said that handy, but I can dig it up if you want. Here is a link to the quote.

The point is no one knows at this point whether the bailout will be $350 billion, $700 billion, or $1.3 trillion. We don’t know how much money the government will lose (or possibly even make in the long term) because no one knows yet how much these sub-prime mortgages cost. The point of the bailout as I understand it is to create an environment where banks can find the true value of these mortgages (like on an auction market) and be able to sell them without going bankrupt. Once every financial institution has their books in balance and knows how much money they truly have, it will be easier to make new loans to businesses and lend to each other because then they”ll know how much risk they can take.

(I have to say that I’m not confident about my understanding at all. I could be completely off.)

The main point is that neither McCain or Obama will know how much they have to cut or what changes they’ll have to make until they know how much the budget shortfall will be. I guess they could have responded “Well, if I had to cut something, I would cut…” but it would have been better if Lehrer had asked that question directly.

What did you think? Let me know your thoughts.

[rant]

“With the longer resume on foreign policy, McCain is expected to overtly raise doubts about Obama’s readiness to become president, arguing that his election would amount to a high-stakes gamble.” (Politico)

Seriously? After everything that has happened over the past two months, it’s Obama who’s the gamble?

You know what language I’ve heard describe McCain’s campaign in the past two months? Risk-taking. Impulsive. High-stakes gamble. And this is from his supporters. They talk about his “act first, figure it out later” brand of decision making as a good thing.

Back in January, I was rooting for McCain to win the Republican primary. Not because he was a weak candidate, but because I thought he was the best Republican in the field. My image of him was the moderate maverick of 2000, and I felt that our country was in such dire straits, we needed the best from both parties to fight it out.

What we ended up getting was someone fundamentally unserious about the business of running this country. The man is a fingernail away from death, and he picked a VP candidate so unqualified that even die-hard conservatives are questioning whether she should stay on the ticket.

He has gone out of his way to recreate fabricated controversies and consider truth as a matter of opinion. He introduced instability and uncertainty into what will probably be the most important decision Congress will make for the past 10 years–the financial bailout package–solely to grandstand, and at a time when what is needed most is calm and stability.

Think about his latest action for a bit. There is a lot of debate on what we should do to resolve the financial crisis–a Congressional bailout, investing money directly into banks, etc. But most economists agree that what we end up doing will determine whether we go into a bad rescission for a year or two or another Great Depression for several years.

What type of a person fucks around at a time like this?

A lot of political analysts focus on that fact that McCain is making big gambles and chat about if these gambles will work out. I have a different take. A person who takes high-stakes gambles is unfit to lead this country, regardless of whether those gambles turn out to work.

[/rant]

McCain won!

This could be Photoshopped. Probably Photoshopped? I mean, they’re not THAT incompetent, are they?

Update: It’s not Photoshopped. It’s real.

To quote President Bush, a man second in elegance only to Winston Churchill, on the state of the Wall Street bailout: “If money isn’t loosened up, this sucker could go down.” (quote)

Indeed. But why is this sucker in threat of going down?

I think a lot of the problems at hand could have been avoided if Treasury Paulson called it “The Rainbow Unicorn Package! With Sprinkes!” rather than a “bailout.” You bail out screew-ups, and who wants to do that?

The real stumbling block though is uncertainty. What I find amazing is that not only are economists still debating the structure of the bailout, some of then are still debating whether we even need a bailout.

Take a look at The Washington Post today. On the front page is an article on how some economists are doubting the premises behind the bailout.

But I’ve also read many commentaries by analysts like Steven Pearlstein, someone whose opinion I respect a lot, summing up the current debate and making a sound argument on why we need to do something.

Political debates need engines to drive them. It could be the engine of expert opinion, of special interest groups, of public consensus, of ideology, of a strong leader, or more often, some mix. In this debate, a clear driving force has yet to bubble up.

Ideology hasn’t even helped define the debate. Conservative and liberals have crossed lines to both support federal intervention and argue for doing nothing.

Sec. Paulson, President Bush, and Senate leaders are the default engine, agreeing to a bailout in principle and negotiating the details. That’s where we were on Wednesday. The problem is that the negotiation is fragile and can’t withstand even a small challenge, which is why the plan got tabled when Senator McCain (representing House Republicans) injected himself into the process.

My sense from the negotiations and what I’ve read is that some sort of bailout is needed, but no one wants to own the bailout because the political downside is great and the upside small. People won’t like you more if you support the bailout, but they will like you less. In an election year, that makes action in the House impossible unless both sides give each other cover by signing on to the plan.

Senator McCain did a lot of grandstanding by canceling-without-canceling his campaign and then ducking out of the debate peekaboo, I’m-back! Yet if the Republican leaders in the house are unwilling to get their members in line behind the bailout, then perhaps he has a useful role to play.  

What did Obama do when he met Bill Clinton a few weeks ago, call him a honky? Clinton has been lukewarm in his public statements about Obama, making up flimsy excuses for not campaigning (”I’m going to wait until after the Jewish holidays”) , and now this.

Is McCain making his decisions with a Ouija board at this point? Seriously. I wish to know if he and Cindy are sitting every night in a room lit by blood candles with a Ouija board in front of them. “Q…U…I…honey, are you feeling something from the ‘t’?”

And why does Gov.Palin have to cancel her events too? I mean, I know why, but what excuse are they giving? Does McCain have an electronic monitoring bracelet on her ankle? Is that why she blinks oddly? “H-E-L-P…S-O-S”? It would suck if she did because who knows Morse code nowadays? How are we even remembering that Morse code used to exist? It hasn’t been used in 50 years.

I have an announcement. Effective immediately, I am suspending all new posts on Pancake City.

What happened is that two weeks ago, a pipe broke and started flooding my basement. I was going to call a plumber, but I was very busy writing posts and promoting my blog at the time.  Also, I had just bought a kayak, and thought this would be a good opportunity to try it out.

I did not anticipate the rate of water flow though, and eventually the water reached my roommate’s bedroom by the stairway, carrying his cat out the window. Don’t worry, the cat is fine, albiet very wet and confused.

My roommate called a few plumbers last week, and after days of long, hard work, they are 95% done fixing the pipe and draining the basement. That is why I cannot write another word, excluding these words, and the words after this, until they finish the last 5%.

Although I know nothing about plumbing, sanitation systems, or where water even comes from, my ability to hover around plumbers and make useful suggestions like “Are you sure that’s tight?” and “Really, are you sure?” will guarantee they will finish the job without taking any frivolous lunch breaks.

I am also suspending all Google ads promoting my site. In a time like this, how can I continue to promote myself when our entire house is at risk? Yet I know many of you will be concerned about the plumbing progress. That is why I will be holding press conferences at 10:00, 2:00, and 5:00 every day until this crisis has been averted.

I call on my competitor, FlapjackCountry.com, to follow my lead and also stop posting on his blog. I will also not compare Google Analytics stats with him this Friday as planned. In a time like this, does it really matter who has the better keywords or more attractrive design?

I am happy to have that comparison next Friday, although at a cost. That is the same date we were planning on comparing our affiliate sites, ForeignPolicyMonthy.com and ICanHazCheezBurger.com.

That is truly unfortunate.

“The Dead Raise for Obama” (link)

-3 though for the “Expert Review” of Google’s new G1 phone, being as the phone doesn’t come out for a few weeks and the second paragraph of the “Expert Review” is “Granted, I’ve only had a few minutes of hands-on time with the T-Mobile G1, so this doesn’t count as a review—we’re just talking first impressions here.”

Update: Okay, +2 for this one.  “Disgraced former NBA referee reports to federal prison camp” (link)

Monday — McCain
MCCAIN: “My friends, let me be clear. The fundamentals of our economy are strong.”

President Bush sneaks on stage and leans over to McCain.

PRESIDENT BUSH: [whisper whisper whisper]
MCCAIN: “I’m sorry. I meant to say, the fundamentals of our economy IS strong.”

President Bush snickers and runs off. McCain adviser runs on stage.

ADVISER: [whisper whisper whisper]
MCCAIN: “I mean, the fundamentals of our economy are not strong. Are not.”
ADVISER: [whisper whisper whisper]
MCCAIN: “And Senator Obama is a giant from Venus.”
ADVISER: [whisper whisper whisper]
MCCAIN: “I mean, a giant penis.”

Monday — Obama
OBAMA: “He said WHAT about the economy?”

Tuesday — McCain
HOLTZ-EAKIN: “McCain helped create the Blackberry.”
CARLY FIORINA: “Sarah Palin isn’t qualified to run Hewlett-Packard.”
JUGGLING BEAR: “I like honey!”
PRESS: “Ooh! A talking bear!”
JUGGLING BEAR: “Don’t forget the juggling, ladies.”

Tuesday — Obama
OBAMA: “You got to be kidding me. They said WHAT?”

Wednesday - McCain
MCCAIN is spinning in a chair.
MCCAIN: “I’m against the AIG bailout!” [spins] “I’m for the bailout!” [spins] “Weeeee!”

Wednesday - Obama
OBAMA: “Seriously. Is this a hidden camera show? Am I being Punk’d? They’re not even trying.”

Thursday - McCain
MCCAIN: “If I were President, you know how I would handle this crisis? By speaking directly to the American people, and telling them in no uncertain terms: here is a steady stream of scapegoats to feed your lust for blood and vengeance. Chris Cox, chairman of the FEC, needs to be fired!”
REPORTER: “Actually, he’s the chairman of the SEC.”
MCCAIN: “Aha. Doppelganger Cox. He’s fired too!”
REPORTER: “The President can’t fire the chairman of the SEC. It’s an independent commission.”
MCCAIN: [grabs reporter by shirt] “Listen, bud. If I can’t fire him, I will thrust my hand into his chest and pull out his beating heart. Welcome to Administration McPain.”

Thursday - Obama
OBAMA: “America, let me be frank. I don’t have a clue what’s going on either. And I’m afraid of saying something stupid. But I’ll tell you what I do know. How to give short, declarative sentences in somber tones that will reassure people and make me look presidential.”
PRESS: “Eh. Well, at least he talks to us sometimes.”

This is very funny.

The U.S. is almost $10 trillion dollars in debt. We’re planning on borrowing another $700 billion to shore up the banking system, and it may not even do the job. Foreign creditors are hesitating to loan us more money because they doubt the future value of the dollar or have their own financial problems to deal with. We’ve carried a national debt as long as I’ve lived and there’s no hope on the horizon for getting rid of it.

Can we declare bankruptcy and start over?

Maybe the country can skip the country for a few weeks. We’ll leave our junk out for the repo man, like our analog TVs and 1st-generation IPods, and hide the good stuff in our cousin’s attic. “Oh, no! You’re taking our New Kids on the Block LPs and our CRT monitors?” 

When our creditors stop calling us, we’ll sneak back in the country and live frugally for a while. No one would lend us money again, so we would have to be really good with our finances in the future. No more unfunded tax cuts or war sprees! I’m looking at you, President Bush.

Credit cards will be banned and replaced with a piggy bank in every pot. If we want to buy something, we’ll save up for it, just like our grandparents did. The combinations will be set by people with more sense than us (our children) so we won’t be able to withdraw money early when the IPhone 5G comes out (”Now with more Gs!”) or when low gas prices inspires Detroit to figure out a solution for their problems: the new Santayana SUV! “Those who forget the past are…uh…check it out! This SUV runs on gas and the parts of smaller cars that you crush!”

A new ethic of saving will cause some parts of the economy to take a hit. Dark days are ahead for the dog throne industry. We’ll have to scrape by with regular couches for our pets for a while. And to be frank, I don’t see much hope for the pet porthole sector either.

But if we can send a man to the moon, who says we can’t tighten our belts and live frugally for a few decades, or at least until we figure out how to send our debt to the moon?

I understand though if you find this measure too drastic. There are smaller steps we can take to save money. Canada, fair warning: if 300 million Americans show up at your restaurants tomorrow, be very suspicious if we all have to go to the bathroom at the same time.

In the wake of an epic financial meltdown that threatens to derail the U.S. economy for years, Barack Obama announced he was ending his run for President of the United States, declaring to a stunned nation, “Man, this is bullshit.”

In a boisterous and hastily-called press conference, Obama detailed his reasons for the decision. “I was prepared to fight global warming, reform the health care system, repair our crumbling roads, create a 21st century electric grid, find Bin Laden, end the war in Iraq, and bring peace to Israel and the Palestinians. But now you tell me I have to clean up the worst financial mess since the Great Depression too? One that’s going to plunge our economy into a recession for most of my administration while I take the blame? Fuck that. That’s fucking ridiculous. You guys clean up your own shit. I’m outta here.”

He elaborated: “From the time I was a little boy, I dreamt of being President one day. Of having the power and resources to enact a bold vision for the country, to set this great land on a path to a better future. Now we’re fucking broke. What the hell can I do when we’re $9 trillion in debt and got 1 billion Chinese hankering to cash their IOUs? I can’t even buy a three-fingered handjob now.”

Obama also revealed that he previously thought about quitting when Sen. McCain picked Gov. Palin as a running mate (”What is this, a reality TV show?”), when the media covered the faux lipstick-on-a-pig scandal for two days straight (”Why would I call her a pig? She’s a fucking MILF, for Christ’s sake”), and when he realized he was still neck and neck with McCain in the polls in spite of being his opponent’s superior in every possible metric and running as the exact opposite of one of the worst administrations in U.S. history.

Obama took no questions from reporters. After reading his statement, he threw his suit jacket on the ground, made an obscene gesture to the press corp, and dashed out a back exit, where he hopped on a motorcycle and yelled “See ya, bitches, I’m off to do my wife” as he rode away.

The new de facto leader of the Presidential race, Sen. John McCain, was unaware of the development until told about it by a reporter. When asked how he felt about Obama quitting, McCain replied: “Senator Obama would like to fool the American people that he is the quitter in this race. He’s not. I already quit in 2005, well before Obama even thought of quitting. That’s quitting you can believe in.”

It is unknown at this time where Sen. Biden will replace Obama at the top of the ticket, but it is unlikely as the Obama campaign announced plans to return all unspent money to its supporters along with a 20% off coupon to flights to Canada.

A new version of the Zune Player software was released. Whoopee.

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It’s snide, but I can’t help it.