Prediction Update
I need a new tag: “yeah, politics, again”. At least I can tuck this under the fold that isn’t a fold for those not interested in politics. I predicted a few week ago that superdelegates would gather behind Obama and pressure Clinton to drop out if she didn’t win Ohio and Texas by a combined 25%.
The results for Ohio and Texas have just started to come in, and I wanted to re-evaluate my prediction before the results are known. More dynamics of the situation have been brought to light, although the information is conflicting and doesn’t make predicting what will happen much easier.
Here is the evidence arguing Hillary will drop out soon. Even under a rosy prediction of her results tonight and in the next month, it is very difficult for Clinton to overtake Obama’s lead in pledged delegates. The superdelegates are politically savvy. They know this, and that a drawn-out battle could bloody whoever emerges to the point of losing the White House in November. A few undeclared superdelegates have already started to trickle to Obama, and there is a rumor that he will announce soon that he has gained 50 more superdelegates.
If Clinton wins both Texas and Obama tonight, it will be a tremendous psychological boost to her, but will not narrow the pledged delegate gap significantly. Her only real option is to have a “scorched Earth” strategy of tearing Obama down so she can narrow the pledged delegate gap in future contests and convince enough superdelegates to switch over to her because Obama is no longer electable. This is a “scorched Earth” strategy because the bad blood and damage generated by such a battle might be too much for either Obama or Clinton to overcome. Superdelegates and party leaders would obviously want to avoid this scenario.
Now for the evidence Hillary will stay in the race for a few more months. The average Democratic voter is not thinking this strategically. They don’t know Hillary’s uphill road to climb, and aren’t thinking about the damage caused by Obama and Clinton attacking each other while McCain gathers resources, consolidates his base, and attacks Obama too. If she only loses Texas or Ohio, Democratic voters want her to stay in the race by a 2-1 margin. If she lost both Ohio and Texas (she won’t), barely half of D voters think she should drop out.
Even if Hillary wanted to drop out for the good of the party, which is the big, unanswered question, she wouldn’t be able to if she wins Ohio and Texas, even if she barely wins. She would be disappointing her supporters, and severely hurt her chances for getting people to work for her and donate money to her in future campaigns. Her supporters need to be convinced first that it would be best if she dropped out, and they’re nowhere close to being convinced. Obama has stayed away from arguing in public that she can’t catch up with him in pledged delegates at this point, but expect to see that argument gingerly made more often from now on.
Also, would Hillary drop out for the good of the party? Chris Rock said one of the most brilliant lines on the Presidency: running for President is a crazy person idea. Every person running for President has been planning it for several years (or even decades). He or she has been working non-stop towards that goal for the past few years. Wants it more than anything in the world. Has literally tens of thousands of people who have invested their sweat and tears into getting you elected. How do you abandon that dream and those people unless you are forced to?
When I said Clinton needs to win Ohio and Texas by a combined 25% to stay in the race, I may have been right in terms of the numbers she would need to narrow Obama’s pledged delegate advantage, but it was still a gross overestimation. It didn’t take into account the psychological impact of winning a state, plus all of the pressure for her to stay in the race. I still think the party insiders will begin pressuring to drop out unless she has a great night, but if tonight’s message is mixed, like a win for Obama in Texas and a win for Clinton in Ohio, what will follow will largely depend on Clinton’s appetite for tearing down Obama (and perhaps tearing the party in half) for an outside chance to win.