Pancake City

I know at this point, no one is going to read yet another article about something horrible Bush has done and say: “Okay, the first 314 were fine. But number 315 is the last straw. I’m voting for Kerry.”

But it’s important to me that people know the depth of how truly deceptive the Bush administration was in painting the war in Iraq as some sort of response to 9/11.

Judge the accuracy of this yourself, but Bush’s former ghost writer says Bush was talking about invading Iraq in 1999. Or ask yourself, why was the administration have planning meetings about a war with Iraq only two months after 9/11?
(both links from TPM)

And 52% of Americans still thinks Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda. I think the administration’s way of planting false beliefs into the minds of a majority of the public is the great untold story of the past four years.

With all the daily polls, pundit chatter, ad campaigns and media converage, the main reason I think John Kerry will win is the same reason I thought six months ago: how many people do you think voted for Gore will vote for Bush?

And how many people who voted for Bush will vote for Kerry?

Even anecdotally, think of the dozens of newspapers that endorsed Bush in 2000 who are either endorsing Kerry or no one.

Gore won the popular vote. He lost Florida through a combination of voter disenfranchisement and human error (i.e. the poorly-design butterfly ballot).

And you think Kerry might lose?

How can he not win?

I know most Kerry supporters think Kerry will win, and most Bush supporters think Bush will win. Here’s my prediction anyway: Kerry 50.5%, Bush 48.5. Kerry 287 Bush 251. Post your own prediction is you want.

Also, curses are stupid. Go Skins.

That’s the headline of the latest SurveyUSA Poll from Virginia. I wonder about parts of their methodology: 1% undecideds? That’s a few percentage points lower than most polls.

Regardless, there’s been lots of positive news coverage about the tight race in Virginia. Kerry’s odds aren’t great, but they are good enough for me to bet a friend dinner that Kerry would win Virginia.

A few things. One, do not doubt The Fridge. Ever. The Fridge is beyond all doubt. Before The Fridge, we did not have a fridge. We have a cooler, a pack of ice, and a couple of Bud Lights named Dufner and Vanderlinden.

Two, The Fridge is always full. The Fridge is never broken. If you do not like how The Fridge is working, do not complain or wonder if you should look for a new fridge. The Fridge is not broken. You are broken. Even when you cannot see the light inside the fridge, it is there.

(Maryland beat FSU today. First time in 14 meetings. Highest-ranked team they have beaten in years.)

I pledge allegiance…to the Bush?

Well, there goes the parody I was writing in response to the loyalty oaths.

The Bush Campaign: America’s #1 Comedy Writing Team.

Anyone dressing up in a flight suit and a cod piece?

(from a letter to Salon.com)

I will concede without too much doubt, that dukes is right, the youth vote is going to play big in this election. Besides, when have you ever seen Puffy jump into a fight that he knew he couldn’t absolutely win? It’s a nice way for the Puffster to do a “civic,” “nonpartisan” service and put those old gun charges to rest for real.

South Park’s take on Puffy’s “Vote or Die” campaign Wednesday night was hilarious.

I’d make them wear this for Halloween.

If Kerry wins, and we don’t have a 2000-style dispute or recount, I’m bringing the goons in and running the political advisers out of Pancake City for a week. No posts mentioning Bush, Kerry, Iraq, WMDs, polls, political commercials, or anything even tangentially related to politics, including The Daily Show, fake news articles, parables, surveys, and links to web sites.

Just a little gloating and lots of champagne. And probalby an mp3 of a cricket chirping, because it seems like months since I’ve written something that’s funny and not related to politics. (I know I’m setting myself for a comment like “You don’t need the ‘and not related to politics’ part!”)

Ghaaaaaa…

The end of the Nerd Trifecta is coming Dec. 14. I have already wet myself.

Unless Kerry wins by a sizable margin, I don’t see how we’re going to avoid another scenario like 2000. The GOP is working their butts off to suppress minority voters and to lay the groundwork to challenge the legitimacy of a Kerry administration.

The shameful thing about the 2000 election is that it brought to light the serious flaws we have in our process, flaws that were masked due to large margins of victories in past presidential elections. We lost a lot of credibility in the world community as advocates of democracy due to our own inability to hold an uncontested election. But it was a price we had to pay to become aware of the flaws in our antiquated process and the need for reform.

But we’re not there yet. And that’s the shameful thing: we were made aware of an urgent problem, given 4 years to fix it, and barely got halfway there. How the hell are we going to hold fair elections in Iraq in January if we’re still fighting about our election in December?

Note: Here’s the same post if this were a conservative blog:

Unless Bush wins by a sizable margin, I don’t see how we’re going to avoid another scenario like 2000. The DNC is working their butts off to falsely register voters and to man the polls with teams of lawyers so they can challenge the legitimacy of a Bush administration.

Eminem just released a video for his new song, Mosh, that bashes the President heavily. I think his virulent sentiments is going to generate a strong backlash from his fans, who…

Oh, wait a minute. Eminem doesn’t play country music for a bunch of rednecks? My bad.

I don’t know if it will make a difference, but both the animation and message of his new video is awesome.

Bush has pissed off such a wide range of people, from conservative publications like the Financial Times to usually apolitical hop-hop artists, that I wonder who’s left. I half-expect to see Big Bird offering kids to fly their grandparents to the polls and Snuffy next to him (her?) holding a phone in his trunk as he calls up undecided voters in Ohio. Oscar has a “Re-defeat Bush” sticker on his garbage can, and if there’s going to be a recount, there’s only one man to do it.

COUNT: “One vote, two vote, three votes for Kerry!”

Before blogging software came into being, I had a web site for several weeks late in 2000. I found my archives on an old 1.44 mb disk and thought I would share my Nov. 1 entry with you:

As much as I want Gore to win, reality is staring me in the face. He’s going to lose by a landslide tomorrow.

My sad conclusion is based on two things:

1) The Weekly Reader, a periodical for kids and teens, runs a mock election where kids vote on who they want to be the next President. They’ve picked the correct winner in almost every election in the past 50 years. The results just came out today, and they do not look good for Gore:

• Bush 65.8 percent — all states (except Delaware) and Washington D.C.
• Gore 32.6 percent — Delaware

2) A well-respected poll aggregate site, Real Clear Politics, have released their final analysis on the expected electoral college totals for Bush and Gore. Based on their expertise and insight, they have Bush winning 446 electoral votes, and Gore winning 92. Just to cite one of their sobering conclusions:

• The real debate is not who is going to win the election, but whether Bush will win 308 electoral votes or 474 electoral votes. The media’s fantasy of Bush winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college is not going happen. The worst case scenario for a Bush victory will be a 2-3 point win in the popular vote and 10-20% more than the necessary 270 EC votes.

I don’t know what to say. I’m completely demoralized and crushed. I’m not even too sure I’m going to get up tomorrow to vote.

The Kerry campaign is putting a little money in Virginia. The Washington Post has the story.

They’re donating $50,000, which is absolutely nothing, but that’s all I really wanted them to do. Why? Because it’s enough to generate this Washington Post article, and the article lets people know the race is close, pumps up the morale of volunteers, and maybe even brings in some last-minute donations and volunteers. That’s a lot for $50,000.

If you want to do something, there are lots of publicity events you can participate in that will take an hour or less of your time. Let me know if you want to do something.

Michele and her boyfriend Evan are having an election day party. The theme: Forty Ounces To Freedom. They’re providing all the guests with a 40, making fake labels for the bottles, and will drown out whatever chants of “Four More Years” from their neighbors with “Fo Mo Forties!”

I know some of you are having get-togethers on election night. And you don’t have 40s. What’s stopping you? Turn the TV onto FOX News and take a swig every time Brit Hume looks like he is about to cry.